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Risk Factor Reduction Model


H. Krueger & Associates Inc. has created a unique economic model. The model looks at the direct and indirect costs associated with the risk factors of excess weight, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, physical inactivity and unhealthy eating.

It is the first peer-reviewed model that adjusts for double counting based on the overlap of multiple risk factors in any one individual.

Risk Factor Reduction in Manitoba: Tobacco Smoking, Excess Weight, and Physical Inactivity

​The model was initially developed in 2010 for a project in Manitoba which examined the economic burden of tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity in that province, with the results subsequently published in a peer-reviewed journal.

​Risk Factor Reduction for Canada

​In 2014, we extended the analysis across Canada, with results published in the Canadian Journal of Public Health.

​In 2015, we made a critical update to the model and revised our analysis for Canada. We also determined what the potential cost-avoidance would be across Canada if every province was as healthy as the province with the lowest risk factor rates.

The results were again published in the Canadian Journal of Public Health. British Columbia ranked as the healthiest province.

If the residents in the other provinces were as healthy as British Columbians, Canada would save $5.3 billion annually. 

​This news was highlighted across the country by various media outlets

​Detailed Analysis within British Columbia

​We subsequently analysed the variation in risk factors within British Columbia by Health Service Delivery Area. 

unhealthy lifestyles bc

A summary of these results will be published in the April 2016 (Volume 36:4) issue of the journal, Health Promotion and Chronic Disease Prevention in Canada, Research, Policy and Practice.


We can use our model to analyse your jurisdiction. We will produce a customized report that will inspire you to focus on initiatives that promote healthy lifestyles.

Risk Factors Added: Alcohol Use and Unhealthy Eating

Until recently, our risk factor reduction model was based on three key risk factors that generate healthcare costs, namely, tobacco smoking, excess weight and physical inactivity.

We have now incorporated alcohol use and are in the process of incorporating unhealthy eating.

Our current research addresses the following questions:

  • What proportion of cancers are attributable to excess weight, smoking, physical inactivity and alcohol use? What is the economic burden attributable to these cancers?
  • What is the economic burden attributable to unhealthy eating, with low fruit and vegetable consumption as a marker of unhealthy eating?
  • How do the rates and economic burden of these risk factors vary between middle-aged males and females?

What Can our Risk Reduction Model do for You?

Please contact us if you are interested in promoting healthy lifestyles in your jurisdiction.

We can provide convincing data for a funding application. Furthermore, we can collaborate with you to write a report tailored to your needs. If you want to see your results published in a professional journal, we will provide the leadership needed to  make it happen.

Transparent Analyses​


Collaborative Written Reports

Professional Publications

  • We update our database annually to give you the most current information
  • We analyze the prevalence, risks and economic burden of risk factors by levels of intensity.
  • Excess weight is grouped by the categories overweight and obese.
  • Smoking is subdivided into light, moderate and heavy smokers.
  • Alcohol use is  broken down by light, hazardous and harmful use.
  • Fruit and vegetable consumption is placed into four categories based on ideal consumption levels as identified by Canada's Food Guide.
  • We can identify the economic burden by individual disease and disease category, such as cancers, cardiovascular disease, and so on.
  • ​We can estimate the long-term economic benefits of risk factor reduction in your jurisdiction. Flexibility within the modelling allows us to incorporate a variety of potential reduction estimates over a 25 year horizon.
  • We can use sophisticated, state of the art algorithms to ensure that double counting does not occur. We have pioneered an approach that  is not available from any other source.